Understanding the WiMAX Business Model

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Multimedia services and Internet applications have been the primary drivers in growth and demand of mobile broadband. It has ensured the operators to innovate and upgrade to newer technologies and architectures to offer services at lower cost but at the same time with improved user  experience to the end users.

The transition to the next generation network has been already envisioned by the industry players and the move has been outlined to meet the set objectives. The higher level objectives include offering higher data rates, greater system efficiencies, increased data capacity, highly scalable and flatter all-IP architecture with successful interoperability with mobile devices across different networks and technologies. This leads to advent of next generation networks like Mobile WiMAX (Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access)  developed jointly by IEEE and WiMAX forum based on IEEE802.16e-2005 global standard and LTE (Long Term Evolution) developed by 3GPP in its Release 8.

We will deep dive into the WiMAX business model analyzing the total cost of ownership, revenues and map the current state of WiMAX deployments around the world.

As a standards-based technology with wide industry support, a large ecosystem of developers, and a rapidly growing list of commercial installations, WiMAX stands to benefit from economies of scale and a vast embedded base of WiMAX enabled devices – driving down costs while spurring growth in subscriber adoption.

The other important factor operator is considering in how the platform fits into their existing short term and long term business model, measuring the total cost of ownership and with potential for harnessing time-to-market advantages to grow subscriptions and generate revenue. In the end, detailed business modeling customized to the operator’s market profile and service goals will provide the understanding of how to optimize the WiMAX investment to optimize the returns.

COSTS

We will first identify the Cost Model for WiMAX concerning the operator’s investment.

As always done we will break the cost into two major components:

1. CAPEX: Capital Expenditure

2. OPEX: Operating Expenditure

The initial investment on a WiMAX deployment focuses largely on capital components associated with procuring the necessary equipment throughout the network and systems architecture. With the introduction of WiMAX service and subscriber adoption with growing usage rates the operating expenses will consume the growing share of total cost of ownership. The end-to-end deployment and operational efforts contributes to the cost of ownership.

The Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of WiMAX network = CAPEX +OPEX

The Capital expense normally consumes a larger percentage of the total costs but the operating expenses will outweigh the initial capital outlay over time. With WiMAX it is estimated that over the course of 6 years the capital expenses such as infrastructure, core and backhaul equipment will contribute to roughly 25%-30 of the TCO while the operating expenses including IT & operations site maintenance, device subsidies, support and administration will account to roughly 70%-75% of the TCO.

Operating costs can be expected to comprise the largest share of the cost of ownership.

Operators will need to pay due attention to deploying a WiMAX service network that can be readily operationalized with effective management capabilities and strong integration to the systems architecture.

WiMAX offers significant cost advantages in either greenfield or overlay installations over traditional cellular or broadband alternatives. The economics of WiMAX deployment has been demonstrated as favorable to markets as diverse as emerging markets with challenging price constraints seeking access to basic voice and data connectivity to mature markets seeking to enhance existing broadband services with mobile broadband applications.

As a licensed spectrum technology platform, WiMAX investment decisions are predicated by access to appropriately regulated spectrum.  Almost three quarters of the spectrum allocated for WiMAX globally is focused in the 2.5 GHz and 3.5 GHz bands.

WiMAX networks deployed at 3.5 GHz may require almost 30% more sites for a given coverage area than a 2.5 GHz installation. The increase in sites at 3.5 GHz results in approximately 13% increase in total cost of ownership for the system over 2.5 GHz. Fixed costs common to both a 2.5 GHz and 3.5 GHz network including such operational line items as subscriber acquisition, systems integration and network management results in the 30% increase of sites to contribute only a 13% increase in cost of ownership. It is important to note that over time as capacity increases and the 2.5 GHz system requires investments in new build out earlier than the 3.5 GHz system – both the 2.5 GHz and 3.5 GHz system will demonstrate parity in cost of ownership.

REVENUES

The WiMAX architecture  can realize host of rich Web-based applications and enhanced Internet services as well as operator managed “walled garden” services in the same network, allowing operators to explore creative service offerings and Internet friendly business models. This may include personal communications, mobile entertainment, mobile commerce, enterprise applications and a rich mobile web with connections across a landscape of devices.  To complement that, the over-the-air activation protocols and associated network conformance testing and certification in the WiMAX Forum are structured to ensure successful network entry and provisioning of a variety of mobile Internet devices, including embedded communications devices and consumer electronics distributed through retail channels.

With the all-IP flat architecture in the entire  service delivery value chain has changed  the relationship between the operators and end user. There are different actors like content providers, advertisers, application service providers playing different roles and sharing the stage with the wireless operator. Operators are  collaborating with  these different actors in driving differentiation  through content, applications and high level personalization of products and services. Thus by providing the different mix of value added services, devices  and plans for different end-user segments operators may realize stronger growth, higher  revenue (ARPU),greater  market share( no. of subscribers)  and a swift return on WiMAX investment.

FACTS & FIGURES:

Considering some trends and statistics of ongoing WiMAX deployments and subscriber acquisition throughout the world, we have following figures and growth projections:

Products

Lets have a look at some of the WiMAX Certified products from WiMAX vendors.

- Neil Shah

HSPA, EVDO, WiMax then LTE but what about the mobile backhaul??

With HSPA, EVDO maturing, WiMax getting deployed and LTE getting ready to buzz around, it is soon changing the way mobile phones will access the networks. The bandwidth hungry new services, applications and the non-stop touch clicks on your smart handhelds are eventually going to obsolete these mature 3G networks. Whereas, the 4G access networks are definitely envisioned to control this ever-increasing wireless broadband traffic but what bout the evolution of backhaul?? Is it ready? or is it going to be a major bottleneck analogous to the traffic jams seen if only one lane was operating out of a four lane expressway.

So, let’s have a closer look on how the mobile backhaul network is currently positioned.

The trend below depicts the exponential growth in asynchronous data demand for next 5 years.

Mobile Traffic Projections for the next 5 years

Over the next few years, “user experience” will still continue to rely on 3G (and in some regions on 2G) technology.But for the mobile operator, LTE/WiMax is already part of the game plan. Operators have to learn the technology, and its impact on their networks, applications and service offering. Though, service providers are seeking revenue and profit growth through new differentiated packet-based services. Many of these services, such as mobile Internet and mobile TV, require high bandwidth—and the current backhaul infrastructure is not optimized for handling such traffic. Hence, providers have to add backhaul capacity while keeping operational costs under control, a situation that is forcing carriers to migrate their access and core networks to the new 3G and 4G infrastructure.

There are three main transport technologies in the backhaul arena – fiber, copper and wireless point-to-point microwave.

The costs of backhaul form a significant part of service providers’ revenue accounting for three quarters of mobile transport costs and 25-30% of total operating expenses. The 2G infrastructure carried voice traffic through switched TDM (T1/E1 or SDH/SONET) or ATM. As with 3G/4G services, already  the bandwidth requirements have shot exponentially and to transport voice and data efficiently has been the need of the hour.

Basic requirements for a 4G Backhaul network:

1. Capacity: A single tail site should be scalable to 100Mbps+ capacities to avoid bottlenecks

2. Latency: A solution that supports 10msec or less end-to-end latency

3. All IP: Support IP traffic from head to tail.

Current migrating strategy is transporting Ethernet packets over point-to-point Microwave. Over 50% of all mobile backhaul deployments worldwide (and nearly 70% outside the U.S.A.), point-to-point microwave systems offer simple and cost efficient backhauling for voice and high-speed data services. That’s because point-to-point microwave supports higher data rates than traditional copper T1/E1 lines, it delivers between 25% and 60% more bits compared with similar TDM based systems, and easily overcomes the high cost and limited availability associated with fiber. Thus, operators can connect the TDM ports today, and gradually shift traffic to the Ethernet ports in the future. This shift can be done from remote, so no additional CAPEX or OPEX are needed. The industry has already established that the end game of next generation mobile backhaul networks is all-IP/Ethernet. Ethernet is not only more scalable, it also offers huge cost savings across the entire network value chain.

Ethernet cost savings per 1 Million subscribers

Also migrating to high capacity and lower latency Ethernet/All IP network, the systems should also support QoS aware Adaptive Coding and Modulation and Statistical Multiplexing. The former helps optimizing network for spectrum efficiency, increasing the radio capacity and  thus reducing cost/bit and latter in optimizing traffic management over the network reducing congestion and improving efficiency. An IP over Ethernet infrastructure has the advantage of the bandwidth growth curve of Ethernet moving from 10 Megabits per second (Mbps) to 10 Gigabits per second (Gbps) today and 100 Gbps in future. This coupled with the decreasing cost of Ethernet ports provides growth opportunities with increasing economies of scale.

Ethernet microwave Vs. TDM microwave equipment cost comparison

Thus, of the three backhaul technology options operators can choose from, wireless point-to-point microwave can deliver the best cost-performance features, bringing faster ROI and driving forward the proliferation of advanced mobile services in the LTE/WiMax era. But in the longer run a hybrid  solution of microwave, optical or IP/MPLS core might be seen as a balanced solution that might reduce the OPEX with improved scalability, higher bandwidth, lower latency and better efficiency. So operators pull up the socks and get ready for the great migration.

Also, a point to note with CISCO’s recent acquisition of Starnet Networks which makes it now one of the most dominant player in mobile backhaul solutions market.

From the recent news releases:

Verizon has committed to deploying fiber to 90% of the cell sites in its territory by 2013, closely following VZW’s LTE rollout schedule

Qwest plans to run fiber 7,500 to 17,000 cell sites in its territory

- Neil Shah

References:

“ATM to ALL IP”  Cost effective Network Convergence – Tellabs ’2009.

“LTE Backhaul Solutions”- Ceragon June 2009

Cable Backhaul: A towering OpportunityWebinar Harris Stratex Networks Nov’2009