AT&T upgrading to HSPA+ but will it ensure reliability??

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Stephen Lawson of IDG News Service recently mentioned in his article why AT&T needs to spend $5 Billion on its wireless network. I agree with him on this as AT&T has to catch up with the coverage offered by Verizon Wireless.

Though AT&T boasts of the fastest 3G Network and it might be too, but customer satisfaction and connection reliability index especially in urban areas are the two main reasons which might blur AT&T’s image. And with inclusion of bandwidth hungry smartphone (iPhone primarily) users in its portfolio, loading their networks and juicing out the backhaul, situation might get out of control for AT&T  unless they start acting on it. Apart from the loading the other important factor which I mentioned earlier is coverage which affects the reliability.

Issue 1: 3G Speed & Reliability Tests

AT&T’s 3G network is based on HSPA (High-Speed Packet Access) and an upgrade to HSPA+, a system designed to deliver as much as 7.2M bps (bits per second). Verizon uses EV-DO (Evolution-Data Optimized), which that carrier said offers as much as 1.4M bps in real-world performance. The speed of the network for individual subscribers depends on a variety of factors. But what matter here is the reliability along with the speed. The PC World test, conducted by Novarum last year, found mixed results for network speeds among AT&T, Verizon and Sprint but showed AT&T in last place for reliability in all 13 cities tested.

The above analysis puts light on The “reliability” score depicts the percentage of  the tests in which the service maintained an uninterrupted connection at a reasonable speed (faster than dial-up) for Verizon, Sprint and AT&T in 13 different cities.

Issue 2: CAPEX on wireless infrastructure

Recent reports from TownHall Investment Research depicts that AT&T is short on CAPEX behind key competitor Verizon and Sprint on its Wireless infrastructure. AT&T’s capital expenditures on its wireless network from 2006 through September 2009 totaled about $21.6 billion, compared with $25.4 billion for Verizon and $16 billion for Sprint (including Sprint’s investments in WiMax operator Clearwire). Over that time, Verizon has spent far more per subscriber: $353, compared with $308 for AT&T. Even Sprint has outspent AT&T per subscriber, laying out $310 for network capital expenditure. That investment shortfall has been the major cause of AT&T’s poor network performance, which has been reflected in tests by Consumer Reports and PC World

The other issue is AT&T invests more in its wired infrastructure than in its wireless network, even though the wireless business contributes a majority of the carrier’s profit. AT&T gets 57 percent of its operating income from wireless and only 35 percent from wired services, but wireless only gets 34 percent of the capital expenditures, with the wired network taking up 65 percent of that spending.

Issue 3: Backhaul Capacity

Along with invest in upgrades to HSPA 7.2 in the base stations, AT&T needs to remove the backhaul bottlenecks to accommodate high speed data in the core. The backhaul limiting the speeds is the primary concern  as I mentioned in my previous post for operators choosing the right backhaul solution considering the capex/opex. The $5 billion investment gap could expand to $7 billion because of the need for new backhaul capacity to link AT&T’s wireless network into the wired Internet.

Issue 4: Old Infrastructure

Another looming problem for AT&T is that its E911 emergency calling system, which works on its older GSM (Global System for Mobile communications) network, hasn’t been adapted to use 3G and is unlikely to make the migration soon. That means AT&T will have to maintain that old network for the foreseeable future, including possibly more capital investment for more power-efficient GSM equipment.

Solutions:

Hot on the heels of T-Mobile USA’s announcement that it upgraded its 3G footprint to HSPA 7.2, AT&T Mobility said it upgraded its own 3G cell sites across the country with HSPA 7.2 software. However, AT&T clarified that it is still working to deploy increased backhaul capacity to the sites, a job that it will continue into 2011. With this the customer experience will definitely get a boost with improvement in consistency in the data sessions access. So apart from base station upgrades and increasing backhaul capacity AT&T needs to add more number of  base stations especially in the urban areas where the user confidence level is shaky and expand their coverage.  AT&T has already started taking some smart steps by moving the 3G service to its longer range 850MHz radio band in the San Francisco area which seems to have helped coverage there, and the company will probably take that strategy nationwide while testing coverage in specific areas and “surgically” increasing capacity.

So the ball is in AT&T’s court and they have to act, spend and expand !!

-

Neil Shah

References:

Analyst: AT&T Needs to Spend US$5B to Catch up by Stephen Lawson, IDG News Service
A Day in the life of 3G: Mark Suvillan, PC World
AT&T plans to double 3G speeds Ian Paul, PC World
AT&T upgrades cell sites to HSPA7.2 software: by Phil Goldstein, Fiercewireless.com

HSPA, EVDO, WiMax then LTE but what about the mobile backhaul??

With HSPA, EVDO maturing, WiMax getting deployed and LTE getting ready to buzz around, it is soon changing the way mobile phones will access the networks. The bandwidth hungry new services, applications and the non-stop touch clicks on your smart handhelds are eventually going to obsolete these mature 3G networks. Whereas, the 4G access networks are definitely envisioned to control this ever-increasing wireless broadband traffic but what bout the evolution of backhaul?? Is it ready? or is it going to be a major bottleneck analogous to the traffic jams seen if only one lane was operating out of a four lane expressway.

So, let’s have a closer look on how the mobile backhaul network is currently positioned.

The trend below depicts the exponential growth in asynchronous data demand for next 5 years.

Mobile Traffic Projections for the next 5 years

Over the next few years, “user experience” will still continue to rely on 3G (and in some regions on 2G) technology.But for the mobile operator, LTE/WiMax is already part of the game plan. Operators have to learn the technology, and its impact on their networks, applications and service offering. Though, service providers are seeking revenue and profit growth through new differentiated packet-based services. Many of these services, such as mobile Internet and mobile TV, require high bandwidth—and the current backhaul infrastructure is not optimized for handling such traffic. Hence, providers have to add backhaul capacity while keeping operational costs under control, a situation that is forcing carriers to migrate their access and core networks to the new 3G and 4G infrastructure.

There are three main transport technologies in the backhaul arena – fiber, copper and wireless point-to-point microwave.

The costs of backhaul form a significant part of service providers’ revenue accounting for three quarters of mobile transport costs and 25-30% of total operating expenses. The 2G infrastructure carried voice traffic through switched TDM (T1/E1 or SDH/SONET) or ATM. As with 3G/4G services, already  the bandwidth requirements have shot exponentially and to transport voice and data efficiently has been the need of the hour.

Basic requirements for a 4G Backhaul network:

1. Capacity: A single tail site should be scalable to 100Mbps+ capacities to avoid bottlenecks

2. Latency: A solution that supports 10msec or less end-to-end latency

3. All IP: Support IP traffic from head to tail.

Current migrating strategy is transporting Ethernet packets over point-to-point Microwave. Over 50% of all mobile backhaul deployments worldwide (and nearly 70% outside the U.S.A.), point-to-point microwave systems offer simple and cost efficient backhauling for voice and high-speed data services. That’s because point-to-point microwave supports higher data rates than traditional copper T1/E1 lines, it delivers between 25% and 60% more bits compared with similar TDM based systems, and easily overcomes the high cost and limited availability associated with fiber. Thus, operators can connect the TDM ports today, and gradually shift traffic to the Ethernet ports in the future. This shift can be done from remote, so no additional CAPEX or OPEX are needed. The industry has already established that the end game of next generation mobile backhaul networks is all-IP/Ethernet. Ethernet is not only more scalable, it also offers huge cost savings across the entire network value chain.

Ethernet cost savings per 1 Million subscribers

Also migrating to high capacity and lower latency Ethernet/All IP network, the systems should also support QoS aware Adaptive Coding and Modulation and Statistical Multiplexing. The former helps optimizing network for spectrum efficiency, increasing the radio capacity and  thus reducing cost/bit and latter in optimizing traffic management over the network reducing congestion and improving efficiency. An IP over Ethernet infrastructure has the advantage of the bandwidth growth curve of Ethernet moving from 10 Megabits per second (Mbps) to 10 Gigabits per second (Gbps) today and 100 Gbps in future. This coupled with the decreasing cost of Ethernet ports provides growth opportunities with increasing economies of scale.

Ethernet microwave Vs. TDM microwave equipment cost comparison

Thus, of the three backhaul technology options operators can choose from, wireless point-to-point microwave can deliver the best cost-performance features, bringing faster ROI and driving forward the proliferation of advanced mobile services in the LTE/WiMax era. But in the longer run a hybrid  solution of microwave, optical or IP/MPLS core might be seen as a balanced solution that might reduce the OPEX with improved scalability, higher bandwidth, lower latency and better efficiency. So operators pull up the socks and get ready for the great migration.

Also, a point to note with CISCO’s recent acquisition of Starnet Networks which makes it now one of the most dominant player in mobile backhaul solutions market.

From the recent news releases:

Verizon has committed to deploying fiber to 90% of the cell sites in its territory by 2013, closely following VZW’s LTE rollout schedule

Qwest plans to run fiber 7,500 to 17,000 cell sites in its territory

- Neil Shah

References:

“ATM to ALL IP”  Cost effective Network Convergence – Tellabs ’2009.

“LTE Backhaul Solutions”- Ceragon June 2009

Cable Backhaul: A towering OpportunityWebinar Harris Stratex Networks Nov’2009